A "real shock": the real estate crisis seems to be confirmed with a first fall since 2015 in prices in the old, a trend largely due to the difficulties of households to borrow and that is likely to persist.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, prices fell by 0.2%, according to the benchmark Notaires-Insee index, published on Tuesday.
Year-on-year, prices rose by 2.7%, a very clear deceleration compared to the end of 2022 (4.6%).
"The real estate market seems to have entered a new era, with increasingly strong interest rates," said Elodie Frémont, President of the Statistical Commission of the Notaries of Greater Paris.
"It is therefore a real shock that is being experienced in this quarter," stresses Frémont, noting a drop in transactions over 12 months, from 1.12 million at the end of 2022 to 1.07 million in the first quarter of 2023. A figure that remains above the historical average.
The Notaries Index, based on final sales, reflects market trends a few weeks later, but is the most comprehensive indicator.
"This is the first reversal of the trend, which is a strong marker of the impact of the reduction in the borrowing capacity of all French households in relation to the acquisition of a property," reacted to AFP Loïc Cantin, President of the Fédération nationale de l'immobilier (FNAIM).
In a context of inflation, real estate is suffering from the rapid rise in interest rates, which severely penalizes households that need to borrow to acquire a property.
"The first-time buyer is there, there is a need for housing, but he must now make a choice," Frémont said.
Not to mention those who are refused a loan, always numerous according to the notaries.
"The structural lack of housing, and low credit rates, is what has made prices increase 2.5 times in 20 years, and there, we feel that this is the end of this phase," commented Corinne Jolly, president of Particulier à Particulier.
A shortage that is not likely to be eliminated, with new construction broken down, with a fall in the first quarter of reservations with developers (-41% over one year) and building permits (-11.5%).
In the Paris region
Prices are now in the red over a year. The decline in Paris is accentuated, except in the most expensive districts, where real estate continues to climb, probably driven by luxury goods and foreign buyers.
The Notaries of the Grand Paris forecast that the annual fall in prices should increase in the second quarter, neighboring, for the Ile-de-France, 5% for apartments and 3% for houses.
Throughout France, houses continue to grow faster than apartments, as has been the case since 2020, but the gap is closing quickly compared to previous quarters.
In fact, in the first quarter of 2023 alone, the trend was reversed: house prices fell more than apartment prices.
"People realize that the house was not for them," says Corinne Jolly. "They are moving away from the postcard image that came out of the lockdown".
The environmental regulations that will gradually prohibit the rental of thermal strainers, is starting to have effects on sales, the notaries said.
In Ile-de-France, the share of housing classified G in transactions tripled between 2021 and 2022 for apartments and doubled for houses, according to notary data. In the coming months, "it could u have one, two-speed market," imagines Corinne Jolly, "with an influx of offers of thermal strainers because of sellers who do not know what to do with it". Source: https://batinfo.com/actualite/les-prix-de-limmobilier-ancien-passent-dans-le-rouge_24429?id=93fda2dd7ed9f0534c4b4d43ce094f04ba2aa826&utm_source=activetrail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BATINFO%20QUOTI%20%202023-0530